Abstract
Theories
in regional economic blocs have been existing under different sheds with
varying levels of success, depending on the economic blocs region of
establishment. Those in the America’s and Europe have proved especially
successful. In Asia, there is a varying level of success, especially with their
eastern Asian nations with Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). In
other parts of Asia especially, the Middle East, the story is how ever
different. A situation equally or even lower in terms of success is the
situation on the African continent. In view of the challenges encountered by
Africa in relation to trade on the global market, a group of African leaders
moved to establish a continent- wide trade union that could compete globally.
Establishment being one thing, implementation of the policy agenda is quite a
different thing altogether. In this light, this paper seeks to understudy the
African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) to ascertain the potential
success of the Union considering the Political and Economic history Africa has
had. In respect of this therefore, the paper shall utilise secondary sources of
data to draw its conclusion and suggest policy recommendations.
INTRODUCTION
Theories
in regional economic blocs have been existing under different sheds with
varying levels of success, depending on the economic blocs region of
establishment. Those in the America’s and Europe have proved especially
successful. In Asia, there is a varying level of success, especially with their
eastern Asian nations with Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). In
other parts of Asia especially, the Middle East, the story is how ever
different. A situation equally or even lower in terms of success is the
situation on the African continent. In view of the challenges encountered by Africa
in relation to trade on the global market, a group of African leaders moved to
establish a continent- wide trade union that could compete globally.
Establishment being one thing, implementation of the policy agenda is quite a
different thing altogether.
The objective of the initiators of the
African Continental Free Trade Agreement could be broadly termed as the need to
attain the Agenda 2063 (African Union AfCFTA treaty, 2019). This agenda is in
line with the vision of Africa to create a continent that can rival all other
continents in terms of social, economic, and political and infrastructural
development by the year 2063. In consonance to these aims and objectives, the
African Continental free trade area was established in Kigali, Rwanda on the 18th
of March 2018, where the President of Egypt presented his countries initial
ratification of the treaty (Landry and Collette, 2019). The success of the
treaty is largely seen in the response to the treaty as regards the speediness
with which other African states responded to it. For instance, at the time of
Egypt’s preliminary ratification, only 19 African states have signed the
agreement. But thirty days later 19 countries have ratified the agreement,
suggesting that the agreements objectives was within reach within the shortest
time possible (London School of Economics Review, 2019).
Considering the objectives as provided
by article 2 of the treaty and those specified objectives, equally as contained
in article 5 of the treaty this paper shall examine the possibility of
achieving the treaty goals in connection with the “Africa we want, 2063 agenda”
as stipulated by the treaty document (AfCTFA treaty, 2019) considering that
Nigeria has signed treaty recently, being then latest African country to sign
it; in addition to the history of Africa when it comes to ratification and
implementation of treaty agreements in the past. The paper shall contain the
introduction; Objectives of the paper; research method; findings; analysis;
conclusion and policy recommendations.
OBJECTIVES
The
main aim of this paper is to examine the potential for the successful
implementation of the African Continental Free Trade agreement, especially how
it shall realistically impact on the average African in terms of his access to
socio- economic facilities and access to widest possible level of
infrastructure and justice in consonance with global best practices. Before the
paper highlights its study objectives, it is pertinent to highlight the
objectives of the AfCFTA so as to bring into a better perspective as it
concerns the possibility of transforming the objectives of the treaty into
implementable policies by government parties.
Specifically, the treaty of the
African Continental Free Trade Agreement, as established by the Treaty document
article 2 are as follows:
i.
To create a single
market in terms of goods and services to align with the agenda 2063:
ii.
To create a liberalised
market for goods and services continent wide without border hindrances
regarding customs duty:
iii.
Contribute to the
movement of goods and services, capital and natural persons across boundaries continent wide;
iv.
Lay a foundation for
establishing customs union on a continent wide level;
v.
Promote and attain
sustainable development and inclusive socio- economic development for all
Africans;
vi.
Enhance the competitiveness
of state parties within Africa and global marketplace; and
vii.
Promote industrial
development and through diversification, regional value chain development,
agricultural development and food security
The
treaty also contains specific objectives contained in article 5 which states
the following:
i.
Driven by of African
union (AU) objectives and to be facilitated by AU instruments;
ii.
Recognise free trade
areas as single economic bloc for AfCFTA;
iii.
Verifiable geometry;
iv.
Flexible and specific
and differential treatment;
v.
Transparency and
disclosure of information;
vi.
Preservation of the
acquis;
vii.
Most favoured nation
treatment;
viii.
Reciprociry
OBJECTIVES
OF THE STUDY
The
paper shall, in detail study these AfCFTA objectives and shall carry out a
detailed analysis as to the possibility of achieving the implementation of the
treaty and what possible successes are anticipated and what the likely
challenges are going to be. In specifics, the paper shall:
i.
Highlight the likelihood
of success to achieved if the policy implementation of the treaty is
holistically carried out;
ii.
Highlight the possible
challenges to be encountered resultant to the difficulties and ambiguities
contained in the treaty; and
iii.
Suggest possible policy
recommendations towards attainment of the treaty objectives.
RESEARCH
METHOD
Owing to the nature of this paper, the
main method adopted for data collection in it is mainly secondary data- the
data was obtained through internet sources, and observational method based on
the data collected observation shall also be made as regard governmental party
actions through television reports and government white papers on policy
objectives related to the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (Kothari,
2008), and the analysis shall be mainly qualitative as it involves use of non
statistical instruments where values are the main instruments in which the
study shall utilise to determine the success of the Union (Nnabugwu, 2006).
This has not however been without its own challenges as accessing information
has been problematic and the level of information obtained have been peripheral
at best, as all data obtained through it are non essential documents where
journals, periodicals, treaty documents have been basically the main sources of
data for the study. Within the ambit of this, the conclusions drawn from the
little data obtained shall be largely accurate to be utilized for practical use
by the stakeholders involved (Nwana, 1981).
ANALYSIS
Documents
establishing the African Continental free Trade Agreement have been well laid
as the objectives are initially well stipulated in article 2 of the treaty
establishing the document, and as equally contained in the 5th
article establishing the AfCFTA, which has been the reason the document as
attracted a wide acceptance across African with 44 of the 46 African states. Be
this as it may, a few hitches could be encountered as well laid documents would
not necessarily translate into smooth implementation without commitment from
the parties involved. This is going to amount to lots of challenges which these
states may encounter in the implementation of the document provisions. For
instance, Nigeria being the latest signatory to the documents, is an economic
giant with the highest population in Africa and a moderate industrial base is
going to at a loss when the road map to the treaty would not be clearly
stipulated in such a way that it can amount to gains for all state and non-
state parties to the treaty. Owing to these and such other provisions the
document has not clearly stated, the following challenges are going to
encountered:
i.
Creation of a single
market may not be foreseeable in the implementation of the policy objectives as
all state parties are usually out to defend their national interests in such a
manner as to protect the state advancement. As such, markets may differ as
currencies and national interests differ; hence, differences may occur in
smooth implementation as national interest would supersede those of the
treaty’s goal of achieving a common market.
ii.
A customs union may be
seemingly challenging to achieve as the previous economic blocs as Economic
Communities of West African States (ECOWAS), East and Central African and East
African common markets. The main challenge in the achievement of a customs union
may be that previous practices may be too difficult to abandon as old practices
may be too difficult to abandon and new too difficult to adopt;
iii.
The wordings and
language choice in the document write up are too vague and open to be easily
understood and translated into a working policy to be adopted by state members.
Therefore, drawing out policies that is well understood by the actors in the
implementation becomes a daunting task;
iv.
When competitiveness
within member states are considered, national interests may inhibit fair
competition where weaker states such as Mali for instance may become boxed in
to actually compete as productive ones as South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria may
coast on such smaller states’ vulnerability in the African and Global market place.
On a Global level on the other hand it will be difficult for AfCFTA to catch up
to such advanced economic blocs as ASEAN, European Economic Community (EEC),
American Free Tariff Association (AFTA) and so many other with may be hindered
by affinity to colonial pasts. These affinities may be the main reason for the
challenges likely to face the African treaty;
v.
Industrial development
is likely going to be the second most difficult challenge likely to face the
treaty as Africa still heavily relies on technology transfer to drive
industrial growth in the region. Technology transfer has not proven to be the
best form of industrial development for Africa, since all has been invested in
that to no effect;
vi.
Considering Article 5
of the AfCFTA treaty, one could say that the provisions became even more
ambiguous as the statements contained therein are too open ended to determine
the direction they are to aid in the policy drafting and implementation;
vii.
Cultural barriers may
hinder reciprocity, flexibility and special or preferential nation treatment as
to what they may mean in the documents establishing the treaty.
FINDINGS
The study found among such other
things that African Continental Free Trade Agreement is a well thought out
treaty that is aimed at placing the African region in a better position to
compete favourably on the global market place. Yet there appears to be a few
red flags, which if overlooked, may be sources of confusion for the
implementation of the treaty agreement. Such confusions may be as those that
the study finds that:
i.
Commitment to
implementing the provisions of the treaty as African leaders may be too busy
protecting and promoting their political ambitions to study and carefully
implement the provisions of the document;
ii.
The political will to holistically
draft policies to the treaty document may be lacking as the political will to
carry that out to actually make an impact in the short and long run;
iii.
Cultural and language
barriers may surmount and overwhelm African leaders to an extent that difference
may not be put aside by the Agnlo- phone, Franco- phone and the Latin speaking
parts of the continent because every sees the other as being completely
different there by breathing suspicion among member states and individuals
within the state parties;
iv.
Ambiguities in state
party constitutions may prevent some of the implementations provided in the
treaty. As such translation of treaty agreement may amount to duplications and
additional prohibitions to access regarding free movement of individuals, goods
and services across borders;
v.
Sharing of data and
information may not likely be achieved as trust among member states is not
feasible due to existence of national interests that warrants competition among
states for the promotion of national and developmental interests; and
vi.
Competing on a global
level on equal standing with will be difficult as states within the treaty are
former colonial states that will either lay their loyalty to their former
colonisers than those within the region, which will inhibit success in the
implementation of the treaty.
SUMMARY
Africa- wide economic bloc is the aim
of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement which states that African shall
enhance free trade among the African Union member states, which is why African
Union facilitated the establishment of the free trade area translating into the
free trade agreement that was established by the free trade agreement document
in Kigali, Rwanda in 2018. As at May, 2019, 44 African states have ratified the
treaty. Against this background, this study utilised the regional integration
theory while adopting the secondary sources of data and its analysis was
carried out through value forecasting- non statistical analysis was carried
out. In other words, qualitative form of analysis was used to study the
possible challenges to be encountered and the likely successes to be
anticipated if implementation of the document will be carried out through
individual sub policy making and implementation would be made easier and
facilitated by government parties to the agreement. This, in fact is part of
the solution the paper stated in its concluding and recommendation aspect.
CONCLUSION
African
history has been overlaid with lots policy statements for regional integration
from Organisation of African Unity (OAU) to the African Union (AU). All these
regional agreements have lots aspects for trade, investment, infrastructural
development, food security and movement of persons across borders among such
other sustainable development strategies one could foresee for the continent in
the near and not so distant future. Yet, translation of such development
agendas into applied economic and social development becomes the bane of
leaders and policy actors regarding such policies. AfCFTA is on such regional
agreement which, in itself amounts to duplication and continuous piling of such
regional economic documents. These continuous pilings lead into overlaps in
policy formulation and implementation, thereby making laws and their
application cumbersome and too ambiguous to define. Hence, the state of
backwardness in the political and social development Africa dearly hopes to
achieve. In addition, it has been identified that Africa has not initiated an
original African road map to development. In this regard, we only see “copy-
cat” kind of initiative built solidly on the European and American based
initiative which in the end confusion during implementation becomes the actual
thing that bedevils development on the continent. Lastly, policy
recommendations were made to ensure that the African region does not fall into
the ever formulation and implementation conundrum of development policy
documents
POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
In light of the findings of the study,
the paper has drawn out an everlasting and enduring policy recommendations
which will be far reaching if only policy formulators will adhere to those
strictly:
i.
The language in such
documents ought to be clear and simple in such a way that resources needed not
be wasted when the time comes to formulate policies drawing from the treaty
documents;
ii.
The AfCFTA agreement
should have focused more on provision of science and technology based education
such that Africa can compete in terms of research on the global arena such that
trade in the global market will naturally glide into the fore to make Africa an
equal player in that regard. ASEAN, the main body of the South East Asian
nations achieved her prominence through that aspect;
iii.
All customs in
respective member parties should be maintained while a central head quarters
should be selected in the most organised state party such that resources to be
channelled towards development will not be unnecessarily wasted to build a
customs union;
iv.
Severing all post
colonial ties to past colonial overlords, especially by Franco- phone Africa
should be the main focus of African leaders in respect of the implementation of
the policy agreement of AfCFTA in such a way that unity could be achieved in
its policy implementation;
v.
Economically advanced
states such as Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa should carry a lot of burden in
the initial formulation of the policy so as to allow for backward states such
as Somalia, Djibouti, Mali and the likes to advanced economically to allow for
a future fair play in intra African relations;
vi.
Closely knit to this,
non state parties to the agreement need to have an open access to f=policy
formulation such that there would be inclusive decision making across board.
REFERENCES
African
Union, (2018), Treaty establishing the AfCFTA, Article 2/ Article 5.
Ethiopia,
Adis Ababa. pp. 6 & 24
Landry,
S. & Collette, V. V. (2019), African Roadmap to implementing AfCFTA,
Africa Growth Initiative;
Brooking Institution pp. 7 & 19
London,
S. E. (2019), London Economics Review, March 18th 2019; United
Kingdom.
London pp 14- 38
Trade,
I. C. (2019), A Business guide to the AfCFTA, 2018, Geneva Septemeber,
2018
United
Nations, C. T. A. D., (2016), African Continental Free Trade Agreement on
negotiations
in trade and goods; UNCTAD/ WEB/DITC/2016
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